Scottish Independence: The big questions

After the Scottish National Party in 2010 won an emphatic majority in the Scottish Parliament, the question that was on everyone’s lips was waiting to be answered; when will a referendum on Scottish independence be held?

The Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond announced, after tortuous discussions with the UK government, that a referendum on Scottish independence will be held in the autumn of 2014.

Following months of discussion - and argument - the Scottish and UK governments have struck a deal on how to take things forward. Below are the big issues and questions surrounding Scottish independence:

How has the independence debate moved on - or not - in recent years?

In 1999 power was devolved from Westminster to Scotland which saw the creation of a Scottish Parliament and government.  

The then Labour government at the time was unaware of the potential opportunity a Scottish Parliament could give the SNP. To tackle this issue first-past-the-post, part PR voting system was intended to prevent any one party (i.e. the SNP) gaining an overall majority.

Does Scotland want independence?

Polling expert John Curtice says the British Social Attitudes is the only exercise of its kind which has asked the same question about constitutional preferences going back to the foundation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.

He says support for independence has tended to range between about a quarter and a third, with the most recent reading of 32% "towards the high end of that range".

But Prof Curtice, co-author of the survey, warns: "In truth, there isn't any clear evidence that either one side or the other, over the whole period of devolution, has made significant progress either in reducing support for independence or succeeding in increasing it."

So a deal has been struck between the Scottish and UK governments - what has been agreed?
It looks like the arrangement will mean voters will be asked a single yes/no question on whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom (more on that later).

Another significant part of it is that the referendum voting age is likely be lowered to include 16 and 17-year-olds, a key demand of the Scottish government to which UK ministers were opposed.


Who would vote in a Scottish independence referendum?

The franchise in a Scottish independence referendum would be the same as for a Scottish Parliament election and for a local council election.

Nearly 800,000 Scots live in other parts of the UK but they will not receive a vote in this poll.

Some 400,000 people from elsewhere in the UK reside in Scotland and they will receive a vote in the referendum.

How might a referendum work?

MSP's would need to pass a Referendum Bill in the Scottish Parliament.

There would then be a for-and-against campaign, like the one we saw for the AV referendum, before Scots voters went to the polls.

What happens in the event of a 'Yes' Vote?

Talks would begin with the UK government on a constitutional settlement, based on the SNP's declaration of a popular mandate from the Scottish people.

It's hard to say exactly how things would happen, given this would be new territory, but it's likely the timescale from a "Yes" vote to full independence would be lengthy, given the huge number of issues which would need to be resolved.

Defence would be the main one - especially since Britain's nuclear weapons are based at the Faslane naval base on the Clyde.

It's also clear that, as things currently stand, an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound, at least initially, as its currency.

Mr Salmond would like to join the Euro, subject to a referendum and the right economic conditions - but that's not exactly an attractive prospect at the moment.

It has been suggested that full independence, in the event of a 'yes' vote, could be delivered in 2016.

What happens if there is a 'No' Vote? Would there be another referendum?
Alex Salmond has described the independence referendum as a once-in-a-generation event.

All the parties - unionist and pro-independence - are keen to avoid the situation which has unfolded in the Canadian province of Quebec, where debate over multiple independence referenda over the years has been dubbed the "neverendum".

A "No" result in the referendum could spell the end for the SNP as a mainstream political force.

It's also likely that focus would shift back to the debate over more powers for Holyrood - with full fiscal autonomy, as opposed to relying on the Treasury block grant, probably becoming a more serious option.